Don’t look into Fangraphs or PECOTA Phillies projections too seriously

It’s understood that these tools are not an exact science, but they are consistently being implemented into clubhouse after clubhouse as the primary tool in decision making both on and off the field. So let’s look into this seasons projections for our Phightin’s. PECOTA has the Phillies 4th in the NL East with an ugly 77 win season, 4 fewer than 2019. Its interesting how a team can add two clear upgrades to a roster, both on offense and in the rotation, with no major loses from a season prior, and lose 4 more games. Sure the NL East is as competitive as it’s been in quite some time, but it’s actually pretty clear the Phils are the one team who upgraded the most in the offseason. It was time to take a look at previous seasons in recent Phillies history and see where PECOTA missed the mark. Anyone remember 2008? Damn right you do! Brad Lidge dropping to his knees, fireworks at Citizens Bank Park, and a parade down Broad street. That fantastic season will live on in the memories of every Phillies fan old enough to remember it. Did you know prior to the 2008 season the Phillies were a borderline playoff contender and projected to win 86 games? That’s a season removed from a division title and a full 9 games lower than what the Mets were projected to have for the upcoming year. 92 wins and a “World F***kin Champions” later and your Phillies were on top of the baseball world. Guys like Shane Victorino, Matt Stairs, and Pedro Feliz ended up having a few of the most memorable hits throughout that playoff run. Not the stars of the team, but key contributors in pivotal moments throughout that October.

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